| Harmful Algal Blooms - Full
Product Description and Functional Requirements |
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| NERACOOS |
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| User Need Source: |
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| E02 = ECOHAB/GLOBEC 2002 |
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| K06 = Keeley survey, 2006 |
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| E06 = ECOHAB 2006 |
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| WP07 = White Papers from NERACOOS PI meeting 2007 |
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| B07 = Bowdoin HAB Symposium 2007 |
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| Category: Forecast |
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Project #: 1 |
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| Product Description |
Early warning forecasts (48 - 72 hour
advance) of HAB events for specific sections of the coast. Includes severity,
transport, projected die off rates, etc. |
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| User Need | Source |
Real-time to daily forecasts of bloom trajectories
disseminated to both state agencies and aquaculture farmers to enable
proactive management intervention. Start in early spring as early warning of
what season will be. |
E02, E06, B07 |
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3-7 day trajectory models to assist managers
understand the timing, formation, duration, location and movement of HABs
(e.g., projected shore-fall sites) and to support allocation of resources
(e.g., state sampling staff, health advisories, beach closing, etc.). The
Aquaculture industry can also move product to safer waters or harvest it. |
K06 |
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Improved predictive capabilities for forecasting
harmful algal bloom events, severity and transport. |
E02 |
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Predict the timing, duration and location of HABs. |
E02 |
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Predict the transport of nutrients, contaminants,
HABs and larvae. |
E02, E06 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
Operation circulation model (Huijie Xue -
U Maine); Codar (GoMOOS); Buoy Data (GoMOOS, UNH, MVCO) |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
Need more cell count samples at various
coastal sites. Currently depends on research cruises detecting cells.
Automated cell detection on moorings is exciting, but expensive at current
time - $150k per unit. Would also need to adjust circulation models to do
particle tracking (Science Center). |
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| Feasibility |
Requires sustained operational models, buoy data,
codar. Process for more regular cell counts and scientific analysis
(automated detectors or weekly cruises). |
DIFFICULT |
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| Priority |
To be determined… |
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| Notes |
Operational
HAB forecast is a projected outcome of GOMTOX effort (WHOI and others - 2010
time frame). Experimental use of automated HAB detection devices is part of
NERACOOS CSC proposed work. |
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| Category: Forecast |
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Project #: 2 |
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| Product Description |
Seasonal/Interannual forecast to predict
the severity and duration of upcoming HAB seasons. |
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| User Need | Source |
Long-term forecasting of trends to conduct long-term
planning. |
E02 |
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Want yearly cyst bed data |
E06 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
Annual cyst bed survey, analysis by HAB
scientists (ECOHAB/GOMTOX), NAO forecast, etc.; Have oceanography
(circulation models, buoy data) |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
Regular cyst bed surveys (annual or
bi-annual spring/fall), regular analysis of previous year combined with cyst
bed survey results, statistical methods to maximize cyst sampling. Better
codar. |
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| Feasibility |
Would require sustained cyst bed surveys or
confidence in statistical inference of fewer samples. Could be improved with
better codar and wind forecast. |
DIFFICULT |
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| Priority |
To be determined… |
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| Notes |
Not predicting specific weather driven events at
particular location (not accurate wind forecast), more general prediction of
what the season will be like (spring cyst sampling, circulation model), and
following season (based on analysis of previous year, late fall cyst
sampling). Anderson is working on statistical extrapolation with less actual
cyst bed sampling. |
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| Category: Forecast |
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Project #: 3 |
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| Product Description |
Statistical probability that a bloom is
likely to occur if recognized environmental conditions are met (Fuzzy Logic
or HABES type model). (Environmental conditions include: wind direction,
nutrient levels, salinity, other).
By inputing past HAB event
data (what environmental conditions were occurring during HAB, tool begins to
make inferences.
An example is the deduction that:
*IF wind velocity = LOW
*AND surface temperature = high
*THEN stability of the water column
= high
Where a correlation-based early warning model can answer the question of
whether a HAB will occur with a simple 'yes' or 'no', fuzzy logic might give
an answer like 'very low', 'low', 'middle', 'high' or 'very large probability
of HAB formation'. |
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| User Need | Source |
Probabilty of HAB if certain environmental
conditions are reached (wind direction, fresh water input, NAO) |
E06 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
Conditions from previous events - input
into system and outcomes will start to predict likelihood of HAB based on
previous conditions. HABES product in EU for congener to A.
tamarense. |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
Need to know what inputs could be relevant
- wind, rain, air temp, etc. Talk to HABES folks in EU about what worked,
what didn't. |
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| Feasibility |
This would take time to get right. EU orginal models
weren't that great until they startedh integrating recent history. Worthy of
investigation in our region. |
MEDIUM |
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| Priority |
To be determined… |
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| Notes |
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| Category: Indices |
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Project #: 4 |
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| Product Description |
Identify downwelling conditions (wind
related) favorable to HAB formation. Receive alert (email or SMS text
message) when condtions are likely to occur. The variables set by known
scientific criteria which could include wind speed, duration, stress; possibly
freshwater runoff, etc. |
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| User Need | Source |
Winds, current real-time conditions; want to know
when CC gate is "open" or "closed" to determine liklihood
of bloom. |
E06, B07 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
Buoy data, known relationship to wind
(stress/direction/time of year), would set conditions for user, wind forecast
available (NCEP) |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
Operational wind forecast, wind stress
calculation. Understanding of role freshwater plays in system, then would
need freshwater data (precipitation data from NWS?) |
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| Feasibility |
In concept, this product is relatively easy to
develop. What remains to be understood is accuracy of wind data in
prediciting HAB likelihood. |
EASY |
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| Priority |
Bowdoin HAB meeting - expressed by Linda Mercer DMR
as a VERY USEFUL tool to help focus biotoxin work |
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| Notes |
GoMOOS has developed a Gulf of Maine wind forecast for CICOR project
and is workign on notification services for buoy data; both would be integral to this
product. |
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| Category: Indices |
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Project #: 5 |
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| Product Description |
Identify areas of likely HABs based on
chlorophyll/phytoplankton presence. Correlation between startification,
fluorescence, nutrients - compare optical proxies to cell count and scores. |
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| User Need | Source |
Where might a potential HAB occur (optical sensor
network - real time, available on website) |
B07 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
Chlorophyll, fluorescence on a few buoys;
chlorophyll from satellite, cell counts and scores from agency |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
For operational, need more chlorophyll and
fluorescence meters on buoys. |
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| Feasibility |
For prototype (regionally specific to areas with
meters), we have the sensors. Need to evaluate the relationship proposed by
scientists to determine if index would provide useful information. |
MEDIUM |
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| Priority |
To be determined… |
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| Notes |
Dr. Roessler from Bigelow has been working in this
area. Need more information from her on likelihood of developing index for
GOM. |
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| Category: Indices |
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Project #: 6 |
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| Product Description |
HAB
Index of toxicity patterns (scope and duration of blooms based on previous
years and direct relationship between size, severity and environmental
conditions) |
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| User Need | Source |
Correlation between toxicity patterns throughout
GOM. |
E07, B07 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
Darcie Couture at DMR developed index,
could be made dynamic with real time toxicity data, available to other
managers and scientists in other states. |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
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| Feasibility |
Prototype index has been developed (Maine DMR) would
need to determine scope of product was a hindcast, forecast or real-time. |
EASY |
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| Priority |
To be determined… |
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| Notes |
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| Category: Real Time Updates |
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Project #: 7 |
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| Product Description |
Web based portal to access real time
(dynamic) data of toxicity and cell count measurements by state. Limited
availability to managers and scientists |
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| User Need | Source |
MA and NH want upstream conditions from ME |
E06 |
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Cell count measurements |
E06 |
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Need to know toxicity measurements from neighboring
states as they are getting them (upstream conditions) |
E06 |
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Vol phytoplankton results |
E06 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
Agency data is available. GoMODP to
integrate, DMR would need automation to get cell data into system. |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
Agencies need to report in near real time
to database. Maine to begin cell count protocol this year. |
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Agency needs to report volunteer data in
near real time to database. Maine to begin cell count protocol this year. |
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| Feasibility |
Technically easy to do; the agencies have the data.
Would need to develop an easy to use, secure, dynamic portal for accessing
the information. |
EASY |
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| Priority |
To be determined… |
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| Notes |
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| Category: Real Time Updates |
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Project #: 8 |
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| Product Description |
Portal to all available information about
ongoing research, models, preliminary results from surveys, sampling, etc. |
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| User Need | Source |
Consolitdate and make available known data sets,
model output, etc |
E06, K06 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
Have data, model output, sampling results,
etc. |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
Understanding of what tools are available,
how they should be shared and secure access issues. Could be links to HAB
scientists sites, or development of portal with scientist on their site (WHOI
HAB) |
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| Feasibility |
Similar in concept to the centralized agency (cell
count, toxicity data). A place for accessing latest known information, survey
results, cruise data. Would require collaboration with data providers (agency
and scientist) to determine what types of data/tools should be there. |
EASY |
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| Priority |
To be determined… |
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| Notes |
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| Category: Real Time Updates |
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Project #: 9 |
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| Product Description |
Detailed characterization of major HAB
events as they unfold; similar to “Storm Center” treatment of major winter
storms and hurricanes.
Distributed via weekly reports to managers on distribution and abundance of
HABs (NOAA tool currently in operation in GOM as PDF, proposed for Northeast)
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| User Need | Source |
Real-time weekly reports on the distribution and
abundance of HABs |
E06, K06, WP07 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
northeastpsp listserv from WHOI is current
method for communication between scientists and managers |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
To measure HABs and have useful numerical
model (Huijue - operational, McGill - research, Quoddy, Chen). Requires buoys
(EW current), codar, ships, drifters, gliders (looking for coastal current).
Also requires analysis during event. Synthesis of real-time
data (observations, analysis, sampling, surveys) and transfer via email or
other method. |
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| Feasibility |
Requires operational capacity to synthesize and
distribute this data. NOAA has done this in other regions, has plans to do
for GOM |
MEDIUM |
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| Priority |
To be determined… |
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| Notes |
NOAA
working on this as part of larger GOM HAB work. 2009 rough timeline. Would
require someone to assimilate and transfer info via email (PDF) or Text
message. |
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| Category: Environmental Data |
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Project #: 10 |
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| Product Description |
Visualizations of brown tide - locations
and die offs |
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| User Need | Source |
Spatial coverage of the rates and locations of
brown-tide die off |
K06 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
Brown tide blooms tend to occur at end of
non-brown tide bloom die off (can be fed by organic nutrient in water as well
as benthic sources outcompeting other species). Grazing (shellfish,
zooplankton) seems to play a large role in reducing bloom. |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
More science on the cause of brown tide
blooms and relationship to non-brown tide blooms. Suspected to be
nutrient/temperature related. Need point specific flushing rates/circulation
data for estuarine systems. Need a model that understands biology of organism
(nutrient rate/die off/etc) |
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| Feasibility |
Need more understanding of issue - where is it
happening, is prevention or mitigation the goal, or both? Is the product a
circulation model? |
DIFFICULT |
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| Priority |
To be determined… |
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| Notes |
Big problem in NY and Mid-Atlantic states, possible
issue in RI/CT. New York Sea Grant published document on brown tide research
initiative in 2006). |
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| Category: Real Time Updates |
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Project #: 11 |
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| Product Description |
DO profile data - current and historical
to overlay with HAB info |
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| User Need | Source |
Trend data on DO levels to document bloom die-off
and effect on marine organisms |
K06 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
There are only a few DO sensors on buoys -
New Meadows, Bowdoin buoys |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
More sensors, small buoys and gliders to
deploy during low DO events. Talk to Al Hansen (URI) and LI people. |
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| Feasibility |
Will require more sensors - |
DIFFICULT |
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| Priority |
To be determined… |
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| Notes |
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| Category: Real Time Updates |
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Project #: 12 |
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| Product Description |
Nutrient data made available for current
profile and historic values - visualizations of data in specified regions |
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| User Need | Source |
Nutrient climatolgoy |
E06 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
Nutrient measurement capability on buoys.
Talk to Ru at UNH (have on buoy. Using model to compare this year to normal),
Hanson at URI (ISIS - optical from Satlantic). |
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| Feasibility |
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DIFFICULT |
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| Priority |
To be determined… |
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| Notes |
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| Category: Real Time Updates |
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Project #: 13 |
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| Product Description |
Consolidated information on chlorophyll
and nutrients for trophic index |
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| User Need | Source |
Trophic index updated no less than weekly (such data
would be very useful in conjunction with satellite (e.g. MODIS) data and
surface temperatures) |
K06 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
chlorophyll data, and info from satellites
is available. |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
Is this a solution watiting for a problem?
(relevance? Trophic index?) |
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| Feasibility |
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DIFFICULT |
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| Priority |
To be determined… |
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| Notes |
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| Category: Real Time Updates |
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Project #: 14 |
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| Product Description |
Visualizaton of nutrient levels - maps
with nutrient layers in areas of concern. |
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| User Need | Source |
Inter-annual and seasonal assessments of off-shore
vs. nearshore sources of nutrients |
K06 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
Nutrient measurement capability on buoys.
Talk to Ru at UNH, Hanson at URI. |
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| Feasibility |
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DIFFICULT |
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| Priority |
To be determined… |
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| Notes |
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| Category: Historical |
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Project #: 15 |
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| Product Description |
Historical archive and synthesis of
available model output, HAB patterns, toxicity counts. |
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| User Need | Source |
Historical synthesis of the frequency (monthly,
seasonal & inter-annual), duration and spatial occurrence of HABs |
K06 |
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| Technical Requirements (have) |
Have data, model output, historical
analysis (research papers, reports, etc) |
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| Technical Requirements (need) |
Work with HAB researchers to rebuild
stories of past HAB events in useable format for end users (managers,
scientists). May already have done this. Would need to be credited and
developed carefully with scientists. |
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| Feasibility |
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MEDIUM |
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| Priority |
To be determined… |
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| Notes |
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| Other user needs not identified as web
products |
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| Product Description | Ref # |
In-situ remote HAB detection from buoys with data
reported in real-time (MBARI ESP project) |
16 |
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| User Need | Source |
Environmental Sample Processor detects presence of
target species in real time via RNA analysis. |
E06 |
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| Notes |
In NERACOOS CSC proposal for HAB investigation |
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| Product Description | Ref # |
Improvements in biotoxin detection |
17 |
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| User Need | Source |
Improve biotoxin detection methods that are
field-based, reliable and affordable. |
E02, E06, B07 |
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Whole scallop aquaculture - improve testing methods |
B07 |
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| Product Description | Ref # |
Investigate ability to depurate shellfish to remove
toxin |
18 |
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| User Need | Source |
Toxin depuration rates |
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| Notes |
DMR is planning to investigate this in 2007-2008 |
B07 |
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